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objective probability


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1 حسابداری و مالی:: احتمال عینی

Figure 9.2(a) shows the objective probabilities and payouts for the underlying risky asset in each state of nature for two years. If we were to use the risk-free rate, the objective probabilities, and the payouts given the correct state-contingent decision, as given in Fig. 9.2(b), the decision-tree value would be $67, and if discounted at the weighted average cost of capital, it would be $55. Objective probability Since we know the objective probabilities, the payouts, and the values that obey the law of one price, we can reverse-engineer the risk-adjusted discount rates. Once the value of the option is estimated at a node, and assuming that we know the objective probabilities and payouts, we showed

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